Every year, Kimberly and I like to take our best guesses at what we think will walk away as this year’s Printz book and what might walk away being honored with silvers alongside it. We made our predictions last summer, too, but after I had the chance to do more reading and thinking, I wanted to follow up with further thoughts.

I think that 2013 was a dry year for really outstanding YA fiction. There were a lot of good books and a lot of books worth discussing, reading, and recommending to other readers. But in terms of books that would earn the distinction of Printz, I think that the field is really small. In fact, I think the best guesses I have for what might be victorious this year is something I haven’t read.

Here’s what I’m thinking has a good fighting chance of taking home a gold or a silver on Monday when the awards are announced.

Starting with the books that haven’t been talked about as much as others (perhaps “dark horse” contenders):

March, Book One by John Lewis, Andrew Aydin, and illustrated by Nate Powell: There might be a question about whether this one is/was published for the young adult audience (I haven’t read it but I believe it was published YA). All of the reviews I’ve read for this one point to it being a contender. This book, which is authored by Congressman Lewis, follows his struggle for civic and human rights in the mid 1960s. Earlier this year, I read one of Lewis’s other books, and I’ll say that despite what we might think about writing and work as a Congressman, I think he might have the chops for it, and Powell’s illustrations have netted him quite a bit of acclaim in their own right. Can a graphic novel about the civil rights movement that is the first in a trilogy be a Printz? I think it just might. Again, this is hunch, based entirely on reviews and positive discussion I’ve seen around this book from smart, critical, and thoughtful readers. And maybe this will be our “White Bicycle” of the year.

The Golden Day by Ursula Dubosarsky: The writing in this one is what makes it a possibility in my mind. I wrote about this book back in August, and it’s one that’s continued to linger with me. It’s a quieter book, historical, set in Australia, with a touch of magical realism to it. It’s a really immersive read, with the literary chops to go the distance.

The Midnight Dress by Karen Foxlee: Kimberly reviewed this book back in October, and I’ve been watching as others have reviewed it (notably, the Someday My Printz blog). It earned a couple of stars, including one from Kirkus. Not having read it, I can’t talk more to the quality of the story or what exactly makes me think this might be a contender. But a hunch is a hunch, and so I’m going to put it on my list of predictions.

And on to the books that have received more attention and discussion in conjunction with their potential for being named a Printz:

Midwinterblood by Marcus Sedgwick: Again, this was one I haven’t read, but with enough smart discussion from other readers, I think it’s a contender. Short, interwoven stories with strong and memorable writing. This one’s earned a few starred reviews, too, which, while not always an indicator of anything, does help it land a spot on my list in this case.

September Girls by Bennett Madison: I’ve read and reviewed this one, and like Dubosarsky’s book above, it’s stuck with me. In terms of the story itself, there’s so much to mine about gender and sexism, and it’s done in a way that’s very much a fairy tale. The way Madison weaves two narratives together — that of the story itself and the voices of The Girls — is excellent. I think in a year where there haven’t been a whole lot of out of the ballpark books, this one might be one. September Girls earned five starred reviews, which puts it at the top of the list of most starred reviews in YA this year.

Boxers & Saints by Gene Luen Yang: This is another book — and I’m going to call it one book since that’s how the National Book Awards looked at it — that I haven’t read, but it’s one that Kimberly reviewed.  I’ve got nothing substantial to say personally, but again, I trust the reviews I’ve read of this one and the boatload of accolades it’s received already as indication that there’s something here that makes it a Printz contender. Gene Luen Yang is also not a stranger to the Printz, which while not necessarily a reason he’d be a contender, I think it does suggest his work has a quality to it that bears extra attention and consideration.

And let’s end my predictions with three books I’d love to see earn a gold or a silver because they were outstanding 2013 reads that have all of the qualities necessary. This is the “wish list,” if you will:

17 & Gone by Nova Ren Suma: I reviewed this one early last year, and it’s one that I continue to say has a real chance at a Printz. The writing, which is layered, and the story itself, which is immensely layered have something to them that just blows me over as a reader. There’s so much to dig out and dig into, and for me, it was the second reading of Suma’s novel that really made it stand out. I haven’t had the chance to reread a lot of books, but this one worked better on the next reading and I suspect a third or fourth reading would unearth even more depth.

Black Helicopters by Blythe Woolston: This is another one I reviewed early last year, and it’s also one that I had to read more than once before I could make a lot of sense of it. But it was in those subsequent rereads that I found so much to dig into here. This is a short book — under 200 pages — but it’s packed. Trafficking, conspiracy theories, black helicopters, secret government operations, and really damn good writing.

Friday Never Leaving by Vikki Wakefield: Here is a book that almost nobody has been talking about. I reviewed it last fall, and it’s still rattling around in my mind. The writing in this book is out of this world, not to mention that the story itself is rich. Kirkus’s starred review does a really good job, too, highlighting what about this book makes it a contender.

Now that I’m looking at my list, the only real contemporary novel in here is the Wakefield novel (though Woolston’s arguably fits, too, depending upon your read). I don’t think it was a weak year for contemporary though, and the Morris committee seemed to agree, since they selected three contemporary finalists. I won’t even hazard a guess with what the winner may be, since I think any of the three contemporary novels have a real fighting chance at the prize — and since I haven’t read the two other novels, I can’t speak to whether they do or don’t comparatively.

I know it makes me an outcast, probably, but I think that we won’t be seeing a Rainbow Rowell book on the final list this year. Everyone and their mother seems to think otherwise, but I don’t think either of her books have the literary chops to make the cut. Like with The Fault in Our Stars a couple of years ago, it’s worth pointing out that the Printz is not a popularity award. Just because a book got great marketing and had good reader reception doesn’t mean it has all that it takes to win the Printz. Will people be upset about it? Probably. But I’ve been surprised how many have believed it’ll go the distance and despite how many discussions I’ve read as to why, I’m still not convinced people are talking with their critical eye (both her books are heart books and there’s nothing wrong with that, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that it doesn’t fall apart under close reading and scrutiny).

It’ll be interesting to see how right or completely off-course these guesses are come Monday. You never really know what the discussion is like throughout the year for the committee nor do you know how hard someone will champion a title or two the days leading up to the big announcement.

Related, did I mention I got onto the ballot for the 2016 Printz committee? Thanks to everyone who helped by signing my petition back in the fall. Elections open in mid-March, and I’ll share a bit more information about voting and my qualifications when the time gets closer.